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中国文学网

以综合集成方法论突破社会科学认知局限

万相昱 蔡跃洲

  以大数据为核心支撑的新一轮科技革命,为社会科学研究提供了系统扫描、动态跟踪、因果挖掘和总体逼近等技术突破的可能性,并可能引发社会科学研究范式的系统性、根本性变革;而变革的方向将可能更倾向于基于社会理论与社会现实问题,主动性地挖掘多元数据基础,搭建社会主体间的联系网络;更倾向于充分利用人机结合的综合集成模式,溯及社会现象的本源和逻辑传导机制,对社会科学研究对象进行精准量化的结构解析、动态预测和模拟推演。 

  “shehuikexue”tongchangbeidingweiyuguanyushehuishiwudebenzhijiqiguilvdekexue,shiyingyongkexuefangfayanjiurenleishehuixianxiangdexuekemenlei。kexuehuashishehuikexuedejichuneihan,zheiyaoqiushehuikexueyingtongzirankexueyiyangjuyoukeguanxing、kejianyanxinghexitongxingdekexuetezheng。yibaiduonianlai,shehuikexuechengxianchuxianzhudezirankexuehuaqushi,baokuoshulifenxi、tongjixue、jiliangxue、xitonglun、yunchouxuenaizhishiyangongjuzaineideyixiliezirankexuelingyudeyanjiufangfa,xianhoubeiyinrushehuikexueyanjiulingyu,weishehuikexuekeguanhua、dinglianghuahejingzhunhuajinchengtigonglejishuzhicheng,gaibianleshehuikexuedeyanjiutixiheyanjiufanshi,jidatuidongleshehuikexuedefazhan。

  社会科学研究既有范式存在认知局限 

  tongwulixue、huaxuedengzirankexueleisi,shehuikexuehenduolingyudeyanjiudouhuiyijuguanchadaodeshehuixianxiangtichumouzhonglilunhuoxueshuo,ranhoucongshizhengjiaodutongguoshujufenxidengfangshijiayiyanzheng(zuozheng)。raner,shehuikexuelingyuhenduolilunxueshuodetichusuiranyuanyu(kexue)shehuidiaocha,danbukebimiandicunzaisuijixingshikong、feiguancexinxi、moxingguodujianhua、jiasheqiantiguoyuyangedengwenti,shizhenghuanjiedezuozhenggongzuoyeyoucihuishoudaojielunyoupianhuofeiyizhidengqingxingdekunrao。zheiyiweizhe,zaishehuikexueyanjiujiyoufanshixia,yanjiutixidesuijixing、mohuxinghezhuguanxingnanyiconggenbenshangxiaochuhuodedaoyouxiaojiejue;xiangyingdeyanjiujieguoyenanyiyongleisizirankexuedefanshijinxingxiaohe、yanzhenghequeren(verification,validation & accreditation,vva)。youcixingchengshehuikexueyanjiujiyoufanshiduijingjishehuixianxiangrenzhifangmiannanyiyuyuedejuxianxing(huorenzhihonggou)。

  shehuikexueyanjiurenzhijuxian(renzhihonggou)chanshengdegenyuan,shouxianshizuoweishehuikexueyanjiuduixiangderenleishehuihuodong,queqiedishuoyuanyurenleishehuihuodongdefuzashiyingxingtezheng。butongyuziranjieyouliangjiyueqian、yongxianerxingchengdefuzaxitong,renleishehuihuodongdefuzashiyingxingyouqidutezhichu,jutilaishuojizhongbiaoxianweiyixiajifangmian。

  yishishuxingyizhidaozhideshehuifuzaxing。hongguandeshehuibiaoxianbenzhishanglaiyuanyuweiguancengmiangetishuxingdeleiji。erxianshizhongweiguangetideshuxingqianchawanbie,zongliangxiangtongdeshehuiqunti,qineibudefenbugejukenengwanquanbutong。caiyongdianxinggetifenximoshihuozongliangfenximoshidechuantongyanjiufangfa,bingqileshehuixianxiangdeweiguanyizhihuabenyuan,wufabaozhangyanjiudejingquexing,shenzhiyouxiaoxing。

快3  ershixingweiyizhidaozhideshehuifuzaxing。nengdongxingbiaoxianshirendebenzhitezheng,shehuixianxiangdoubukebimiandishejirenleidexingweitezhengjiqiyinfadejieguo,duixingweijinxingdingliangkehuashishehuikexueyanjiudebixuyaodian。renleixingweitongchangshizishenshuxing、jingjihuanjinghelishiyinsuzonghejiaozhidefuzayingshe,butonggetixingweimoshigebuxiangtong,jishikongzhitiaojianxiadetongyigeti,qixingweimoshiyecunzaijiaodabuquedingxing。chuantonghushixingweibianhuahuozhedanyihuaxingweitezhengdeyanjiumoshi,nanyikehuabutongquntiyingduichongjiheshiyinghuanjingdejuecejizhihejuecejieguo。

快3  sanshijiaohuwangluodaozhideshehuifuzaxing。makesizhuyirenwei,renshishehuiguanxidezonghe。weiguangetizaishehuiguanxiwangluozhongbuduanfashengshuxinghuoxingweidejiaohu,weiguanshuxingyuxingweideleijixingchenghongguanshehuixianxiang,erhongguanshehuixianxiangdebiandongfanguolaizaiciyingxiangweiguangetidexingweiquxiangheshuxingtezheng。shehuixitongjianlizaiweiguan、hongguandeyizhixingkuangjiajichushang,erchuantongyanjiuwangwanghulveshehuituantizhongdeweiguangetidejiaohufankui,huokenengjiangshehuixianxiangzhongdehongguanzhutiyuweiguangetigeliechuzhi,daozhiqinanyishiyingshehuikexuexitonglianghuadexuqiu。

  sishidongtaishiyingdaozhideshehuifuzaxing。renleishehuizidanshengyilai,bianchuyubuduanyanhuadejinchengzhizhong。shishishang,zuoweizhinengxingzhuti,renleigaizaohuanjingheshiyinghuanjingdexingweifanying,zuizhongcushishehuiquntijuyoulexingweihejuecedeshiyingxingtezheng,bingyoucixingchengshehuizhengtizhuangtaidebuduanyanjin。suoweideshehuijunhengzhuangtai,shixiangduiyiyide,shiyibeipohuaideshenzhiwufadadaode。shehuiyanjiuyingchangshicaiyongjiyudongtaiheyanhuadeyanjiufangfa,youqishishehuihuanjingzhongdebuquedingxingwaishengchongji,gengqianghualezishiyingxingyanjiudebiyaoxing。

  shehuikexueyanjiuduixiangdefuzaxingyiweizhexitongdewujiehuonanjie,erqishiyingxingyiweizhexitongdeshishibianqianhedongtaiyanhua。huozheshuo,renleishehuixianxiangjihubuhuiyouquedingxingyingsheguanxi、kejisuandehanshuxingshi、mingquebubiandeyingxiangyinsu,yinciyejiubuhuiyouquedingdebihejie。zaikaolvdaowupianheyouxiaoshujuziliaodequeshi,shehuikexueyanjiujiyoufanshizairenzhifangmiancunzaijiaodajuxianxing,erzheizhongrenzhijuxianzheshedezeshiqibeihoufangfalunshangdemouxiejuxian。dangdaishehuikexueyanjiujiyoufanshishijiejianbingyizhixiandaizirankexueyanjiufangfahefanshierzhubuxingchengde,zaifangfaluncengmianyihaiyuanlunweizhuti,tongshiyejianjuzhengtilundechengfen。raner,zuoweikexueyanjiudefangfalun,wulunshihaiyuanlunhaishizhengtilun,zaichulifuzajuxitongdebuquedingxingheyanhuaxingwentishidoucunzaiyanzhongzhangai,erjiyurenleishehuihuodongdeteyoudefuzaxinggenyuan,xianyouyanjiufangfashenzhizaijingzhunlianghuaheweiguanjiegoujiexifangmianyecunzaiyanzhongquexian。

  以综合系统集成方法论应对人类社会复杂性 

快3  weigengweizhunqueyouxiaodibaworenleishehuihuodongdefuzashiyingxingtezheng,zhenzhengdajianqishehuikexuehezirankexuexianghuronghedeqiaoliang,youbiyaoduijichuxingzhonggoushehuikexueyanjiufangfalundewentijinxingxueshutantao。youjiyinruxitonglun(system approach)defangfatixi,kenengshishehuikexueyanjiuyouxiaobaworenleishehuihuodongfuzashiyingxingtezhengdezhongyaotujing。qijinweizhi,xuejiezaizheifangmiandetansuorengbuduojian,erqianxuesenxianshengchangdaode“zonghejichengyanjiufangfalun”zeshigailingyuzuifuyoujianshudesixianglilun。20shiji70niandaimo,qianxuesenmingquezhichu,“kuai3suotichangdexitonglun,jibushizhengtilun,yefeihaiyuanlun,ershizhengtilunyuhaiyuanlundebianzhengtongyi”。zheiyixitonglunsixiangyizhubufazhanchengweiqianxuesendezonghexitongjichengsixiang。

  qianxuesenxianshengzhuzhangbazhuanjiatixi、xinxiyuzhishitixiyijijisuanjitixiyoujijieheqilai,gouchengyigegaoduzhinenghuaderenjijieheyuronghetixi,barendesiweijisiweidechengguo,rendejingyan、zhishi、zhihuiyijigezhongqingbao、ziliaohexinxijichengqilai,shiduofangmiandedingxingrenshihebiyaodedingliangrenshichongfen、youjidijieheqilai。20shiji80niandaizhi90niandai,yimabin、dairuwei、yujingyuan、gujifadengweidaibiaodexuezhe,lvxiankaizhanlezonghejichengdetansuoxingyanjiu。raner,shangshuyanjiushouxianyudangshimoxingjishuheshujuziliaotiaojianxianzhi,bingweiqudeshizhixingjinzhan。2008nian,zhongguoshehuikexueyuanzaiciqidongshehuikexuezonghejichengyanjiu,chengweiguoneigailingyuzuijinyicidaguimoxitonghuadexueshutansuogongzuo。gaiyanjiutichu,liyonghulianwanghailiangshujubingjiyufenbushijisuanxitong,duishehuikexuewentijinxingdaguimojisuanjiweiguanmonishiyan,xijiyongshujuhejisuanjishujiejueshehuikexuefuzashiyingxingnanti。raner,shangshuliniandetichuzaidangshijuyouchaoqianxing,shenzhiyebingweiyinqizirankexuejiedegongming,zhidao2012niandashujugainianxingqihoucaizhubuyinfaguoneiyejiedeguangfanguanzhu。

  信息技术发展带来社会科学研究革命 

快3  yidashujuweihexinzhichengdexinyilunkejigeming,weishehuikexueyanjiutigonglexitongsaomiao、dongtaigenzong、yinguowajuehezongtibijindengjishutupodekenengxing,bingkenengyinfashehuikexueyanjiufanshidexitongxing、genbenxingbiange;erbiangedefangxiangjiangkenenggengqingxiangyujiyushehuililunyushehuixianshiwenti,zhudongxingdiwajueduoyuanshujujichu,dajianshehuizhutijiandelianxiwangluo;gengqingxiangyuchongfenliyongrenjijiehedezonghejichengmoshi,sujishehuixianxiangdebenyuanheluojichuandaojizhi,duishehuikexueyanjiuduixiangjinxingjingzhunlianghuadejiegoujiexi、dongtaiyucehemonituiyan。

  shishishang,dashujuyugaoxingnengjisuanjishuweijiejueshehuixitongdefuzashiyingxingwentitigonglegaoxiaodexinxiwajuehechulishouduan;jiangzaishehuizhilidezhuduofangmianfahuizhongyaozuoyong。raner,dangqianshehuikexueyanjiuyuxinxingjishudejiehequeliuyuxingshi,qianzhedexueketixibingbuwanquandizhichihejienahouzhe,erhouzhetongyangmeiyouweiqianzhedakaigemingxingdejinbukongjian。zonghejichengyanjiuchengweiliantongdashujushidaishehuikexueyanjiuxuekeshengjideyouxiaotujing,yechengweixinshidaixinfazhanlinianzaishehuikexueyanjiulingyudejutitixian。

  congxinshidaishehuifazhanxuqiudeshijiaokan,yunyongzonghejichengdelilungoujia,bunengjinxianyujiyoulilundejiazong、hailiangshujudejiheheduoyuanjishudediejia,gengyingqiangdiaoqixitongxingheyoujixingdebenzhitezheng。weituidongshehuikexueyuxinxingjishushouduanyijiguojiazhilixiandaihuamubiaodexianghuronghe,zonghejichengyanjiubixuzuochuzhongdalilunchuangxinbingduijiegouhuamubiaojinxingxihua。zaixinshidai,zhongguoshehuikexuezonghejichengyanjiuyingzhongdianwanchengyixiasidakuai3mubiao: diyi,jianlishehuikexuegongchenghuayanjiujizhihetixi;dier,goujianshujuqudongdeshehuikexueyanjiuxinfanshi;disan,yanzhijiyuweiguandeshehuikexuemonimoxingxitong;disi,dajiancongrenjijiehedaozhinenghuadeshehuikexueyanjiupingtai。

快3  xinshidaidezonghejichengyanjiuyingzunxunqianxuesenxianshengzuichudeshejigouxiang,yizhuanjiazhihuiweizhudao,jianlirenjijiehedeyanjiumoshi。qizhong,jisuanjizhezhongyushujucaiji、chulihexinxiwajue,bingweizhuanjiajuecetigongmonihuanjingheyantaopingtai;erzhuanjiazejiyuqizhishitixiheluojitixi,duipingtaixinxijinxingshibie,duipingtaihuanjingjinxingkongzhi,congershixiankexuejuece。yucitongshi,shehuikexueyanjiushouduanbuyingzhangqizhihouyuzirankexue,erzonghejichengmoshiyinglvxianxiangzhinenghuadeshehuikexueyanjiumaijin。shouxian,zaijiezhudashujufenxijishuduizhuanjiajuecejingyanjinxingshulijichushang,jianlizishiyingdeguinaheyanyisuanfa,monijiexizhuanjiajuecedeluoji。qici,xingchengjianjinxingtidaizhuanjiazhihuiderengongzhinengjuecejizhi,dakaishehuikexuezhonglianghuafenxiyuyucedexueshu“heixiang”。zuihou,mianxiangjuecezhe,tigongshehuixitongdefangzhenshapan,shijuecezhekeyizaibuduanbijinzhenshihuanjingdefangzhenpingtaishangjinxingzhilifangandebijiaofenxihedongtaituiyan,shixian“shehuijingjifazhanzhongdaxianshiwentideduoweichaojingzhunpingjia”。

  (本文系国家社科基金重点项目“综合集成模拟实验平台的设计与构建研究”(18AJL006)、国家社科基金重点项目“数字经济对中国经济发展的影响研究”(18AZD006)阶段性成果) 

  (作者单位: 中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所) 

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